Smart Leaders Understand our Hardwiring to Help People Change

We believe what we see. That’s built into the way our brains work. But how do we protect ourselves against long-term, unseen dangers–overcoming what psychologists call “normative influence”? (You see others not wearing masks at Target so wonder “why do I need a mask?”)

Consider the case of Governor Mike DeWine of Ohio who appears to have mastered the ability to see around corners, according to Jennifer Senior in the NYT:

On March 3, the day after de Blasio was encouraging New Yorkers to mingle, DeWine was canceling the Arnold Classic, a health-and-fitness Lollapalooza that draws some 60,000 participants from 80 countries

One insight: The Governor talks to everyone. He is a natural coalition builder and broad researcher, consulting a wide range of experts, before making decisions.

This wide range of sources was key. As the lawyer and behavioral economics expert Cass Sunstein has noted — most recently in his book “How Change Happens” — if you want to shift norms, it helps to know that people have secret, unarticulated beliefs, and what were those texts to DeWine if not an expression of that? (Their tacit message: Please make these people listen.) It also helps to have viewpoint diversity in your brain trust. If you spend time with people who think only like you do, your biases harden…

www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/opinion/trump-coronavirus-dewine.html

Dirty Politics Works, and Other Ethical Dilemmas

What does it mean that Netanyahu, facing corruption charges, appears to be the winning Prime Minister–against all odds. Schmuel Rosner writes, citing a memorable story with Golds Meir that you ha e to “want it” to win. Bibi wants.

The lessons we take away are not pretty. If you are concerned about the ethical implications when anything goes, it appears that might makes right.

For Israelis, the real bad news in Mr. Netanyahu’s victory is that we learned once again that ugly campaigns are effective. Divisiveness works. There is real danger that the prime minister’s rivals will learn a lesson from his success and imitate him in future elections — somewhat similarly to the way American leaders could be tempted to imitate the unrestrained ways of Mr. Trump. And if his rivals do learn from him, Mr. Netanyahu, who has already shown that he wants the job more passionately than all others, will surely up the ante, making Israel more polarized and less tolerant.

Via NYT Opinion

Do Dems Negotiate Worse?

In a knife fight you have to struggle hard to win. And in a negotiation, tactics that equate with ideals of fair-play and equanimity lead to worse outcomes.

Is it true? Could this be why more Democratic policy preferences fail to be adopted?

There are many well-known reasons for this, including the outlandish legislative power of corporate interests and a Constitution that favors rural areas over cities. But does some of it stem from the fact that Democrats have been too willing to compromise or bargain in good faith? Yes, at least new empirical research suggests: Liberals tend to be suckers.

Here is why:

…”as a posture for negotiation, unilateral open-mindedness is a disaster. Facing an uncompromising opponent, it yields a predictable result: getting repeatedly defeated.”

Via NYT

What to See on Diplomacy at Sundance 2020

Here’s an aggregated list of diplomacy and international relations film picks from a sea of options at the Sundance Film Festival 2020, just up the street from me. The films touch on politics, global issues, and diplomacy skills (conflict resolution, negotiation, peacemaking, persuasion) and should afford fresh insights–but be prepared. Not every film at Sundance is ready to impress. (I find a lot of films each year reveal important topics but aren’t great films. Some lack fit the niche but fall short in narrative or run too long.)

Even so, it’s an exciting scene and fun be at the screening of brand new films in Park City or at venues across the Wasatch Front with a very non -local crowd.

---

Via EW.com:

A Thousand Cuts / U.S.A., Philippines (Director and screenwriter: Ramona S. Diaz, Producers: Ramona S. Diaz, Leah Marino, Julie Goldman, Chris Clements, Carolyn Hepburn) — Nowhere is the worldwide erosion of democracy, fueled by social media disinformation campaigns, more starkly evident than in the authoritarian regime of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte. Journalist Maria Ressa places the tools of the free press—and her freedom—on the line in defense of truth and democracy. World Premiere

Welcome to Chechnya / U.S.A. (Director: David France, Producers: Alice Henty, David France, Askold Kurov, Joy A. Tomchin) — This searing investigative work shadows a group of activists risking unimaginable peril to confront the ongoing anti-LGBTQ pogrom raging in the repressive and closed Russian republic. Unfettered access and a remarkable approach to protecting anonymity exposes this under-reported atrocity–and an extraordinary group of people confronting evil. World Premiere

The Earth Is Blue as an Orange / Ukraine, Lithuania (Director: Iryna Tsilyk, Producers: Anna Kapustina, Giedrė Žickytė) — To cope with the daily trauma of living in a war zone, Anna and her children make a film together about their life among surreal surroundings. World Premiere

Epicentro / Austria, France, U.S.A. (Director and screenwriter: Hubert Sauper, Producers: Martin Marquet, Daniel Marquet, Gabriele Kranzelbinder, Paolo Calamita) — Cuba is well known as a so-called time capsule. The place where the New World was discovered has become both a romantic vision and a warning. With ongoing global cultural and financial upheavals, large parts of the world could face a similar kind of existence. World Premiere

Influence / South Africa, Canada (Directors and Screenwriters: Diana Neille, Richard Poplak, Producers: Bob Moore, Neil Brandt) — Charting the recent advancements in weaponized communication by investigating the rise and fall of the world’s most notorious public relations and reputation management firm: the British multinational Bell Pottinger. World Premiere

Once Upon A Time in Venezuela / Venezuela, United Kingdom, Brazil, Austria (Director: Anabel Rodríguez Ríos, Screenwriters: Anabel Rodríguez Ríos, Sepp R. Brudermann, Producer: Sepp R. Brudermann) — Once upon a time, the Venezuelan village of Congo Mirador was prosperous, alive with fisherman and poets. Now it is decaying and disintegrating–a small but prophetic reflection of Venezuela itself. World Premiere

Sergio / U.S.A. (Director: Greg Barker, Screenwriter: Craig Borten, Producers: Brent Travers, Daniel Dreifuss, Wagner Moura) — A sweeping drama set in the chaotic aftermath of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, where the life of top UN diplomat Sergio Vieira de Mello hangs in the balance during the most treacherous mission of his career. Cast: Wagner Moura, Ana de Armas, Garret Dillahunt, Will Dalton, Bradley Whitford, Brían F. O’Byrne. World Premiere

The Dissident / U.S.A. (Director: Bryan Fogel, Screenwriters: Mark Monroe, Bryan Fogel, Producers: Bryan Fogel, Jake Swantko, Mark Monroe, Thor Halvorssen) — When Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi disappears after entering Saudi Arabia’s consulate in Istanbul, his fiancée and dissidents around the world are left to piece together the clues to a brutal murder and expose a global cover up perpetrated by the very country he loved. World Premiere

Hillary / U.S.A. (Director and screenwriter: Nanette Burstein) — A portrait of a public woman, interweaving moments from never-before-seen 2016 campaign footage with biographical chapters of Hillary Rodham Clinton’s life. Featuring exclusive interviews with Hillary herself, Bill Clinton, friends, and journalists, an examination of how she became simultaneously one of the most admired and vilified women in the world. World Premiere

---

Suggestions from Kenneth Turran, LA Times

Ironbark”: Based-on-fact spy dramas are always a treat, especially when starring Benedict Cumberbatch as an ordinary man drawn into the maelstrom of the Cuban missile crisis.

“Boys State”: A high-energy fly-on-the-wall look at what happens when 1,000 Texas high school students gather over a week to wheel and deal and attempt to construct a representative government.

“The Mole Agent”: Wry, charming, gently observational, this Chilean doc introduces the world’s oldest undercover agent, an 83-year-old man hired to see how a nursing home is doing its job. An AARP version of a John LeCarre film, and none the worse for that.

Collective”: A knockout Romanian doc, already a hit at Venice and Toronto, that shows a variety of citizens who refused to be intimidated by entrenched corruption.

Assassins”: The story of the two women who took out the half-brother of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is so bizarre you almost can’t believe it happened.

The Go-Go’s”: A thorough and detailed account, made with current and past band members, detailing the rise, fall, and rise again of the beloved L.A. all-female band. [Not directly related to diplomacy–except that thanks to many things from #MeToo to a rise in female leaders around the globe, it’s quickly becoming a woman’s world. This film shows off some late 20th century rock trailblazers.]

Tactics for Difficult People (and Bad Ideas)

Thanks to management research we can learn what makes leaders better in company settings. But what about followers? What tactics can they use to influence others–included their bosses?

This summary may inspire you to do better (or subtle malice):

• Honesty

• Token obedience

• Foot dragging

• Constructive defiance

• Malicious compliance

My favorite illustration of “constructive defiance” comes from a story told by Bill Hewlett in The HP Way about where “an engineer named Chuck” disregarded instructions to stop working on a monitor. He showed off the protype–resulting in sales of 17,000 displays and profits of $35M.

Via “Bosses, Get Out of Your Employees Way” WSJ

Gaslighting for Beginners

Prepare yourself by building defenses against these psychological tactics. Read all 8 of Sarah Cooper’s brilliant hot takes.

Inside the Mind of Sergei Lavrov

Russia’s top diplomat could take a number approaches in doing the job. In the case of Sergei Lavrov, despite his many successes, universal dislike and mistrust seems to be a constant companion, according to POLITICO’s Susan Glasser.

From two top Obama officials:

“He’s a nasty SOB. He would be relentlessly berating and browbeating and sarcastic and nasty. His job was to berate and beat and harass us and Secretary Kerry into conceding the Russian view. It wasn’t defeating America; it was that Russia can’t win if it has to compromise at all.”

“I don’t see him as zero-sum and suspicious of and averse to the West as Putin is,” said another former Obama official who sat in many meetings in recent years with Lavrov. “He believes more in at least tactical cooperation, at least in a broader context of strategic nonalignment. I think he did actually look for opportunities. I also think he plays to his bosses. So the extent to which he’s acerbic and nasty—that’s partly his personality and partly what he believes Putin and actual powers that be want to hear.”

Source: Russia’s Oval Office Victory Dance – POLITICO Magazine

Russia’s long game is becoming more readily apparent–and has been explored many times earlier–where it must turn weakness into strength.

“Free societies are often split because people have their own views, and that’s what former Soviet and current Russian intelligence tries to take advantage of,” Oleg Kalugin, a former K.G.B. general, who has lived in the United States since 1995, said. “The goal is to deepen the splits.” Such a strategy is especially valuable when a country like Russia, which is considerably weaker than it was at the height of the Soviet era, is waging a geopolitical struggle with a stronger entity.”

Source: Trump, Putin and the New Cold war – The New Yorker, Annals of Diplomacy, March 6, 2017 Issue

Lavrov is an essential diplomatic knight in this game.

In Glasser’s longer profile in FP,  she describes Russia’s “Minister No” as “no gray apparatchik” who dominated the Security Council, drank, “smoked like a chimney” and favorited Italian couture, even as he cites Prince Gorchakov as the Russian diplomatic model. Perhaps that is a key insight, where Russian nationalism drive the antagonism against the U.S., and is integrated into Lavrov’s diplomatic approach.

Terry Gross on How to Talk to Anyone

Diplomats, salespeople, missionaries, and journalists all talk to people. Some do it better than others. But nobody does it as well as Terry Gross, the NRP interviewer par excellance–who kept me informed and entertained as I worked a painting conservation job in college, swabbing dirt inch-by-inch across a gigantic, room-filling canvas. Foam-covered 1980’s era headphones attached to a Sony AM/FM/cassette Walkman were my lifeline to a world of fascinating ideas and people, thanks to Gross.

So when I saw this piece by Susan Burton on the art and craft of WHYY in Philadelphia’s master interviewer I wanted to see what could be learned. One insight: it takes a lot of work (and a little luck) to get a “real moment” in a hard-earned conversation, and it can be uncomfortable:

When the interview ended, Gross and her producers asked themselves, ‘‘Are we going to keep that in the edit?’’ Yes, they decided: ‘‘Maybe there’s not a really satisfactory, conclusive answer,’’ but ‘‘it felt like a real moment.’’ Gross went on: ‘‘Even if the real moment isn’t somebody being really honest and forthcoming and introspective, a real moment of friction, a real moment of tension, is still a real moment.’’

Occasionally the ‘‘real moments’’ can be awkward for Gross. In July, in an interview with the writer Ta-Nehisi Coates, Gross began laughing in response to a story he told about being yelled at by a teacher. ‘‘See, it sounds like you’re laughing because, like, it’s funny if you’ve never been in the environment,’’ Coates said. Some on social media pegged Gross as a clueless white lady. But the exchange was constructive. Gross was simply reacting, and then listening as Coates explained his perception of her reaction. In doing so, he illuminated an experience of growing up in a culture of fear and violence.

Source: Terry Gross and the Art of Opening Up – The New York Times

This American Life “Cars” on Secret Sales Negotiations

One of the best listens this holiday break was an episode from This American Life that revealed the secret negotiating tactics from inside a Long Island auto dealerships–revealing everything you wanted to know about how to negotiate a car sale but were unable to find out.

The reality inside the dealership is much more complex than I would have guessed. As a customer, not only do you have to contend with the salespeople but they are in a multi-polar negotiation involving you, other customers, the manager/pit boss, and all up against hard deadlines, goals/quotas, inventory limitations, and a myriad of other obstacles. Overall I am not sure why this show was so surprising–but it is a lot of fun to consider the inside negotiations and human drama behind a dealership.

via Episode 513: “129 Cars” – bleeped | This American Life. (This bleeped version covers up the salty language used by car salespersons and is best for the classroom.)

Dealing with People in Authority

How should you deal with a more knowledgeable doctor, a defiant boss, or a police officer? Diplomats can take a page from advice provided to Mormon women at the blog Feminist Mormon Housewives to better understand how to respond effectively to others–including people in authority.

Maybe what Mormon women need is both a greater self-awareness of their own physical response to authority and a greater intellectual understanding of how to speak the language of authority. Then, upon interacting with authority figures, there will be less a sense of intimidation and more a sense of solidity and purpose.

The language of authority includes speaking in calm, purposeful tones. It includes eye contact. It includes a resolute determination that one’s own beliefs and actions are valuable, defensible, and even right. It includes carefully and genuinely listening to others’ ideas and then repeating one’s own argument — several times if necessary — even when others don’t agree. It includes being cognizant of one’s own sensations of honor, fear and intimidation and allowing those sensations to move through one’s self and then to dissipate so that one’s own position can again be clearly stated. It includes smiling and speaking to bishops and stake presidents and others who wield control over our lives with the same tones in which we’re accustomed to being spoken to. These men are our equals. Via FHM