Another Bretton Woods for a New Kind of Economic Thinking?

Reporting from INET, a conference held at Bretton Woods, NH on the future of the global economy and rethinking some of our foundational assumptions about the dismal science:

Here too, was former Council of Economic Advisers and super-mathematical economist Ken Rogoff agreeing (a bit reluctantly it must be said) that there are things in economics that can’t be modeled. Even more telling were Rogoff’s references to the importance of the thinking of political economist and historian Charles Kindleberger whose books, once required reading, have vanished from the modern, mathematically oriented economics curriculum. In a significant aside, Rogoff noted that his students don’t consider Rogoff’s recent book on the history of recovery from economic crises to be a legitimate research effort because it is history rather than mathematics.

via The view from Bretton Woods | Foreign Policy.

Lest you think that this is the new Davos, take a look at John Cassidy’s New Yorker  piece that channels Keynes and wins the headline-writing award for “George Soros’s ‘Monstrous Monkey House'” including reference to a  talk by Paul Volcker on international monetary reform. It sounds like a more productive discussion than the famed economist suspected.

Strategy and the Legacy of Brent Scowcroft

What will be the historical summary of Brent Scowcroft, a Utah native son? One approach is to think of him as the adult in the room.

This pragmatic realist and “honest broker” may seem out-of-step in the fading glow of George W. Bush’s neorealism even as voices of isolationism  dot the party today (Think Paul and Cruz). But Scowcroft’s steadfast approach to “preserving order” and the overall strategy did have an impact:

In the final years of the Cold War, Scowcroft’s conservative focus on order may have been sufficient: Progress was on his side. But today, at a time when the international system is changing, for better or worse, the imperatives have ­become more complicated, less clear-cut. Scowcroft ­acknowledged later that once the Cold War ended, “we were confused, ­befuddled. We didn’t know what was ­going on, and we didn’t think it mattered much.” Or as Sparrow puts it, he does not try to “alter the nature of the game; . . . he plays the game set before him.” It was Scowcroft who helped momentarily push and then retract the widely derided concept of “the new world order.”

via ‘The Strategist: Brent Scowcroft and the Call of National Security’ – NYTimes.com.

Scow croft possessed to notable qualities, according to the author Bartholomew Sparrow, as noted in the WSJ: “his mastery of the day-to-day process of formulating strategy” and the “ability to balance the need to use power assertively, on the one hand, and to temper that assertiveness with prudence, on the other .”

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Top U.S. General in Europe: Arming Ukraine ‘Isn’t a Strategy’ | Foreign Policy

Why shouldn’t the U.S. arm its friends in Ukraine? It all comes down to the strategy and the fact that diplomacy may be the best tool in the policy arsenal:

Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges conceded to reporters Tuesday that arming Ukraine could help its fragile pro-Western government on the battlefield, at least in the short term. But he said that wouldn’t be enough to fundamentally ensure that Ukraine doesn’t lose more territory to Russia in the wake of Moscow’s annexation of Crimea last year.

Instead, the general said Washington and its allies should use diplomatic means to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty, and ensure that the NATO alliance doesn’t splinter, while at the same time leaving Russia a path to eventually rejoining the international community.

“Providing weapons is not a strategy,” Hodges said. “There are great arguments for giving weapons to them to help raise the cost for the Russians. I think that is a valid argument. But saying that’s a valid argument is different from saying that this ought to be the policy.”

via Top U.S. General in Europe: Arming Ukraine ‘Isn’t a Strategy’ | Foreign Policy.

Diplomatic History and the Political Science Wars

In the long run, put money on the historians:

Many historians outside diplomatic history—conscious of globalization, concerned about recent foreign policy events, and seeking a broader framework—have attempted to “internationalize” their research. Consequently, diplomatic historians and nondiplomatic historians are finding affinity in one another’s work and publishing in one another’s journals. The results are encouraging, both institutionally and intellectually. The online discussion list for international history, H-Diplo, is one of the most popular lists in the H-Net system. Likewise, the Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations hosts well-attended conferences and publishes an innovative journal.2 But as diplomatic historians have successfully focused on becoming more mainstream within the historical profession, they have neglected a discipline with which they share many interests: political science.

via Diplomatic History and the Political Science Wars.

Winning Public Speaking From Steve Jobs

Take note that we can still learn from even the early NeXT phase:

1. Show your passion. (3:46)
Jobs was well known as an excellent presenter, and his skills are on full display in his introductory speech. He uses repetition well. He’s enthusiastic. He’s natural. But most important, he believes what he’s saying, and he’s not afraid to put himself out there. If you don’t get passionate about your idea, no one else will.
via 8 Essential Lessons From a Young Steve Jobs | Inc 

Violence Against Women across the World

What is the state of women across the globe? At the ongoing #Beijing+20 Conference in NY at the United Nations, the stubborn and perplexing case of violence against women comes to the fore–with useful data analysis from BYU and Texas A&M’s WomanStats project, as reported in this article by Somini Sengupta:

“Overall, as you look at the world, there have been no large victories in eradicating violence against women,” said Valerie M. Hudson, a professor of international affairs at Texas A & M University who has developed world maps that chart the status of women.

In some cases, the laws on the books are the problem, women’s rights advocates say. In some countries, like Nigeria, the law permits a man to beat his wife under certain circumstances. But even when laws are technically adequate, victims often do not feel comfortable going to law enforcement, or they are unable to pay the bribes required to file a police report.

via U.N. Reveals ‘Alarmingly High’ Levels of Violence Against Women – NYTimes.com.

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Long Live the State / The State is Dead

Two books from late 2014 make the case for why the State is in its final throes–but what a good ride it had. In a structural take on international relations, as compared to the theoretical view of power espoused by Moses Naim, Charles Maier looks backward in Leviathan 2.0: Inventing Modern Statehood and John Mickelthwait and Adrian Woodridge wonder about the future in The Fourth Revolution: The Global Race to Reinvent the State.

As Maier chronicles in his gripping account, the modern state wrapped itself in legal authority, harnessed technology, established markets, acquired wealth, and launched violent campaigns of territorial expansion. By the 1970s, the modern state had vanquished all the major alternative forms of political organization: a remarkable world-historical moment.

Micklethwait and Wooldridge cover some of the same ground. But the two editors of The Economist are more interested in the state’s future than in its past — and they are worried. In this clever and sharply argued book, they warn that the liberal democracies of the West have grown too big, a development they describe in evocative terms: “bloat,” “elephantiasis,” “omnipresent nanny,” the “supersizing” of the state. The unchecked growth of government, they claim, contributes to all the ills of today’s Western democracies: frayed social safety nets, demographic imbalances, fiscal crises, legislative gridlock, influence peddling, toxic partisanship. Micklethwait and Wooldridge argue that to fix those problems and fend off the challenge posed by the updated models of authoritarianism put in practice by the Chinese and others, Western democracy must be reinvented.

via Leviathan 2.0; The Fourth Revolution | Foreign Affairs.

Maier draws on history to show how how what we consider modern aspects of the state, “territorial integrity, highly developed governing structures, and technological prowess” are “historical anomalies–as Ethan Epstein writes in National Journal.

Not that this is new. Parag Khanna has been making this case in the literate press for some time, with the rise of NGOs coming to the scene most forcefully in the 1990s–now non-state actors in the media (bloggers), intelligence (Snowden), even terrorism (Bin Laden) are top of the list material for concern.

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How the Euro Crisis, Iranian Nuclear Deal and Ukraine are Connected

Good insight from Stratfor on how three seemingly unrelated events intersect:

Germany needs a deal with Russia to be able to manage an existential crisis for the eurozone; Russia needs a deal with the United States to limit U.S. encroachment on its sphere of influence; and the United States needs a deal with Iran to refocus its attention on Russia. No conflict is divorced from the other, though each may be of a different scale. Germany and Russia can find ways to settle their differences, as can Iran and the United States. But a prolonged eurozone crisis cannot be avoided, nor can a deep Russian mistrust of U.S. intentions for its periphery.

Both issues bring the United States back to Eurasia. A distracted Germany will compel the United States to go beyond NATO boundaries to encircle Russia. Rest assured, Russia — even under severe economic stress — will find the means to respond.

via The Intersection of Three Crises | Stratfor.

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The Legacy of Neoconservativism, Leo Strauss and US foreign policy

How do myth making, policy, and the Univeristy of Chicago contribute to diplomacy and international affairs via the political philosopher Leo Strauss? We revisit the neoconservative legacy thanks to a new book by Robert Howse (Cambridge UP):

Since liberalism, with its ethical relativism and its glorification of public opinion, has permanently undermined the ancient truths of philosophy and religion, as Nietzsche realized, there is nothing standing between modernity and the abyss of nihilism. Thus, in order to cohere, modern societies require “noble lies” or political myths. At the very least, they demand a diabolical enemy capable of uniting citizens in a shared antipathy. As Strauss declared in The City and Man: “The good city is not possible without a fundamental falsehood; it cannot exist in the element of truth.” Also: “Untrue stories are needed not only for little children but also for the grown-up citizens of the good city [and] it is probably best if they are imbued with these stories from the earliest possible moment.”

via Leo Strauss, Peacenik? – The Chronicle Review – The Chronicle of Higher Education.

Strauss incorporate Machiavelli’s approach to human nature as well as “Thucydides’ ambivalence concerning the moral costs of unbridles imperial expansion” according to Richard Wolin, writing in the Chronicle Review. He also had something to say about Hugo Grotius and Immanuel Kant.

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Changing European Demographics in 4 CityLab Maps

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Europe’s population is shifting to the Northwest. The GDP in its more easterly nations seems to be booming, while the countryside and many smaller cities continue to empty at the expense of the great conurbations. And while Europe’s southern nations continue to suffer under austerity, cities around the Mediterranean are nonetheless among the fastest growing in terms of population. These are just some of the key demographic shifts outlined in a recent report [PDF] from Bloomberg Philanthropies and LSE Cities. While the report focuses overall on the 155 submissions made to last year’s first ever Europe-based Bloomberg Philanthropies Mayors Challenge, its data provides a fascinating snapshot of a continent on the move.

via 4 Maps Crucial to Understanding Europe’s Population Shift – CityLab.

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