What are the chances that Geneva II will fail? Very high–but that is only on the prospect that you assume the negotiations are aimed at a peace deal. There may be other aims that can be carefully built into the process. As two Brookings experts note:
Yes, Geneva II will likely fail to produce a settlement to the Syrian conflict. But the United States should take steps to ensure it fails in a way that furthers peace. At the same time, the United States and Russia can improve the prospects for peace by establishing a round of negotiations among the regional sponsors of the warring Syrian parties.
Building on this helpful idea, Daniel Levy and Julien Barnes-Dacey explore how to make the most of Geneva II by “establishing a permanent contact group,” “prioritize[ing] humanitarian assistance,” and “legitimize[ing] intra-Syria negotiations.”