Ian Bremmer made his mark with the J Curve explanation of the rise and fall of nations, measuring the relationship between openness and stability, as well as The End of the Free Market, addressing the competition between China and the rest–notably for the PRC’s unique model of state capitalism.
The future according to Bremmer will be include less relevant BRICS, potential bilateral conflict with China, and overall, more glocal–that is, globalizing at local levels, pushing out to reemphasize regional relations:
The most likely eventuality, as I intimated above, would be a world of regions. The United States, despite its limited capacity to lead on a global level relative to 10 years ago, is still by far the most important power. But we won’t see “global leaders” in a regions environment. We’ll see regional governance and occasional broader consensus if a global challenge threatens a lot of different countries to an equal extent for an equal duration. Any way you slice it, a regional world order will be radically different than the one we’ve experienced over past decades — and much more problematic.