Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid

It’s one of the most persistent cliches of foreign-policy commentary, particularly since it’s an assertion that’s basically impossible to disprove. Here are some things that have been described, in various terms, as the greatest threat to U.S. national security or the American way of life in the past few months:

A “lone-wolf” terrorist attack – President Barack Obama

President Barack Obama – Gov. Rick Perry

China’s nuclear arsenal – Director of National Intelligence James Clapper

The national debt – Former Joint Chiefs Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen

The economic crisis – Retired Adm. Dennis Blair

Nuclear terrorism – Former Vice President Dick Cheney

Yemen – Defense Secretary Leon Panetta

“Homegrown terror” – U.S. National Counterterrorism Center Director Michael Leiter

Cyber attacks -  FBI Director James Mueller

Iran – 63 percent of Americans

The Haqqani Network – Christiane Amanpour

Global warming – Sen. Barbara Boxer

Central American drug gangs – Assistant Secretary of State William Brownfield

The radical secular socialist machine – Newt Gingrich

Obamacare – Rick Santorum

Electromagnetic Pulse weapons – EMPact America

The homosexual agenda – The American Family Association’s Bryan Fischer

via Can anyone agree on what America’s ‘greatest threat’ is? | FP Passport.

How Much is a Life Worth?

In a “very, very difficult” prisoner swap deal between Hamas and Israel that sidelines Mahmoud Abbas, the relative value of each countries’  citizens is revealed.   If you are an Israeli, more than 1,000 Palestinians can equal your freedom–at least in this agreement.  What are the factors and context for this deal?  How does it compare to past trades?

Many aspects of the agreement were not revealed, including the names of important Palestinian prisoners expected to be released. But Israeli journalists said after an intelligence briefing that Marwan Barghouti, a top leader of the Fatah group sentenced to five life terms and seen as a possible successor to Mr. Abbas, would not be freed. Mr. Meshal said that the total would be 1,027, among them 315 prisoners serving life sentences and 27 women.

via Israel Reaches Deal With Hamas to Free Gilad Shalit – NYTimes.com.

Thinking Hard about 9/11 and Iraq Ten Years Later

In the era after 9/11 and the debate preceding and following the US entry into Iraq a lot of arguments flew.  One distinctive aspect of the media was its near unanimity in support of the goals of George W Bush’s administration.  (A panel of BYU faculty were among the less-known voices expressing concern.)

In “A Free-for-All on a Decade of War” the Times Magazine offers a post-9/11 debate on what was learned with some influential foreign policy voices that you should know:  Michael Ignatieff, David Rieff, James Traub, Paul Berman and Ian Buruma.

Example – RIEFF: I find it extraordinary that Paul can say these wars were necessary! There was no Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia presence in Iraq when we overthrew Saddam Hussein — — this is pure Cheney, 1% solution stuff. They came AFTER we invaded. I have nothing against the use of force against Al Qaeda (say in the Sahel). But surely the costs of these wars vastly outweigh whatever benefits there are.

But the more important question is: Why we should be meddling in the first place? Is it our business to decide who rules in Afghanistan? Beyond that, if we are talking about the Arab Spring, I advise caution. It  may well be that the Muslim Brotherhood is the principal beneficiary of Tahrir Square, not the democrats. In any case, there are real economic issues that nothing in the Arab Spring addresses or promises to resolve.

via A Free-for-All on a Decade of War – NYTimes.com.

Another voice that is worth listening to is Phillip Zelikow, executive director of the 9/11 Commission.

In Libya, Islamists’ Growing Sway Raises Questions – NYTimes.com

What will the new government look like?  Small glimpses are starting to emerge.

The growing influence of Islamists in Libya raises hard questions about the ultimate character of the government and society that will rise in place of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi’s autocracy. The United States and Libya’s new leaders say the Islamists, a well-organized group in a mostly moderate country, are sending signals that they are dedicated to democratic pluralism. They say there is no reason to doubt the Islamists’ sincerity.

via In Libya, Islamists’ Growing Sway Raises Questions – NYTimes.com.

Negotiating New START

Does a bi-partisan consensus in foreign policy, the way that the U.S. was governed with much success during the Cold War and a mirror of most public opinion (unless you favor Howard Zinn’s interpretation), returned?  In the end, the Senate did the right thing at the right time–in spite of political inclinations.  How did they do it?  Josh Rogin at FP breaks it down, including the final Republican strategy to hold off until the newly elected lawmakers arrive (which didn’t work, btw).

And why did the argument to delay — made by McConnell, Kyl, Inhofe,  McCain, Graham, and others — fail to convince the almost dozen Senate Republicans who will vote for New START?

Samuel Charap, fellow at the Center for American Progress, said the ordeal should be a lesson in tactics. “On initiatives that have clear bipartisan support, hardball works,” he said.

Inhofe had a different take on why his argument didn’t win the day. “Because we’re just not that persuasive,” he said.

via The Cable | FOREIGN POLICY.

Meanwhile, if you are wondering what’s under the hood, Danger Room helps explain–as well as provide the answer to the question of what about the more clear and present danger of tactical nukes–which are still deployed in Western Europe (U.S.) and near Eastern European borders (Russia):

In other words, if anyone wants a follow-on treaty for limiting tactical nuclear weapons, that’s got to wait for another treaty. And the only way to get the Russians to agree to another treaty is to ratify this one.

The Age of Possibility – NYTimes.com

Do you wonder what era we’re in now?  From Post-Cold War to Globalization to 9/11 and the “War on Terror”?  The IHT has an interesting series, with Roger Cohen leading off:

The essential global divide today is between a worried, depressed and disoriented West (where free trade is framed as loss of jobs) and the buoyant, questing and increasingly confident emergent world of nations like Brazil and Turkey and South Africa. The West suffers from a nagging feeling its time has passed; outside it many countries believe their time is now — or near.

Although there’s talk in the West of a new Age of Anxiety, the neurosis is in fact fairly narrowly confined. True, the unease lies in what is still by far the world’s largest economy — the United States — and is shared by the European Union.

via The Age of Possibility – NYTimes.com.

Iraq: the raveling | FP Passport

Good news?  From Iraq?  Can that be printed?  (Yes, read on…)

According the Iraqi government sources, the country experienced its lowest toll of violence in September since January. The Iraqi ministries reported that 273 Iraqis were killed in September, a dramatic decline from high levels of violence in July and August. The Iraqi governments figures were supported by Iraqi Body Count, which reported 243 casualties in September, and iCasualties.org, which calculated that 174 Iraqis had been killed.

via Iraq: the raveling | FP Passport.

U.S. Influence in Asia Revives Amid China’s Disputes – NYTimes.com

Perhaps we are seeing the “China Threat, Week II” as the diplomatic standoff between China and Japan grows:

Washington is leaping into the middle of heated territorial disputes between China and Southeast Asian nations despite stern Chinese warnings that it mind its own business. The United States is carrying out naval exercises with South Korea in order to help Seoul rebuff threats from North Korea even though China is denouncing those exercises, saying that they intrude on areas where the Chinese military operates.

Meanwhile, China’s increasingly tense standoff with Japan over a Chinese fishing trawler captured by Japanese ships in disputed waters is pushing Japan back under the American security umbrella.

via U.S. Influence in Asia Revives Amid China’s Disputes – NYTimes.com.

Peacetime dividend: Who should play Asteroids?

Whose job its it to patrol outer space?  (Its mightly lonely being the only superpower.)  Perhaps outer space law needs an enforcer?

Scientists have been urging the United Nations to coordinate international asteroid detection efforts for years. But despite coordinating work by the the U.N. Office for Outer Space Affairs yes, there is one, progress seems to be slow-going. There are some promising signs of other powers starting to take the lead. The Mexican Ministry of Foreign Affairs hosted a conference on international asteroid tracing earlier this year. Russias space agency has also proposed a joint asteroid monitoring project with the European Union

via Why is it Americas job to save the world from asteroids? | FP Passport.

Booklist – ‘The Twilight Years: The Paradox of Britain Between the Wars,’ by Richard Overy

Not a terribly cheery holiday thought, and [insert gloomy quote here] on our failure to learn from history.  Still, there is a brooding mood to the Christmas break, that draws me to works such as this–another read that serves as a support for the relevance for diplomacy and dialogue even as we keep the spear ready in the other hand:

In “The Twilight Years,” his thought-­provoking and illuminating new study of the interwar period, Richard Overy contends that before 1914 the British believed they had conquered the world and would rule it forever….

If this feels familiar, Overy is not surprised. “For some years now,” he writes, “there has existed a popular belief that the Western world faces a profound crisis.” A professor of modern history at the University of Exeter, Overy argues rather sternly that, in fact, the West today enjoys a far more secure and wealthier way of life than at any point in history. By contrast, during the interwar years the British — then occupying a position approximately analogous to modern Americans in terms of global influence and responsibility — had indisputable cause for fear.

via Book Review – ‘The Twilight Years – The Paradox of Britain Between the Wars,’ by Richard Overy – Review – NYTimes.com.