The Syria and Iran Connection

Will sanctions  on Syria work, or backfire?  Their impact–especially on Iran–may be a key factor as to whether Israel might attack, according to Ronen Bergman who wrote a cover story for NYT Magazine this past weekend.

Today’s NYT explores the strategic connection between Syria and Iran:

Ali Banuazizi, a political science professor at Boston College and a co-director of its Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies Program, said, “To put it bluntly, if Iran is a threat, then one way to weaken that threat would be to weaken Syria and to help the anti-Assad movement in Syria.”The weakness of the Syria-Iran axis represents a stark turnaround from a year ago, when Mr. Assad’s grip on power seemed assured and Iran was describing itself as the inspiration for other Arab Spring uprisings and Islamist awakening that would subvert America and its allies. Iran even sent two naval vessels through the Suez Canal to Syria last February — for the first time in more than 30 years — in what the Iranians called a message of peace and friendship.

via Syria and Iran Feel Pressure of Sanctions – NYTimes.com.

Regional multilateralism: The next paradigm in global affairs – GPS

What comes next as a model for dealing with global trouble spots?  Think about more Libya approaches:

In a world of diminished U.S. involvement and unsuccessful multilateralist endeavors, an alternative vision for global engagement is necessary. Instead we are faced with a reluctant China, an unprepared India, an European Union in the midst of a financial debacle and a host of regional powers that focus on their neighborhood rather than claiming a global role. Given these realities, regional multilateralism can serve as the way out from this dead end.

via Regional multilateralism: The next paradigm in global affairs – Global Public Square – CNN.com Blogs.

Layers of Meaning Behind King Abdullah’s Trip

Why a trip is not just a trip via King of Jordan Visits the Palestinian West Bank – NYTimes.com.

U.S. Group Offered to Aid Qaddafi, Documents Show – NYTimes.com

Not the first embarrassing leaked detail of someone choosing the wrong side–nor is it entirely surprising.  But still, an “oops”–

Now the confidential documents describing the proposed deal have surfaced on the Internet, offering a glimpse of how some saw lucrative possibilities in the power struggle that would end Colonel Qaddafi’s erratic reign. A Facebook page called WikiLeaks Libya has made public scores of documents apparently found in Libyan government offices after the Qaddafi government fell.The papers contained a shock for the Americans: a three-page letter addressed to Colonel Qaddafi on April 17 by another partner in the proposed deal, a Belgian named Dirk Borgers. Rather than suggesting a way out of power, Mr. Borgers offered the Libyan dictator the lobbying services of what he called the “American Action Group” to outmaneuver the rebels and win United States government support.

via U.S. Group Offered to Aid Qaddafi, Documents Show – NYTimes.com.

Qatar Presses Decisive Shift in Arab Politics – NYTimes.com

File this under “the power of small states” as well as an interesting commentary on how soft power amplifies national interests:

This thumb-shaped spit of sand on the Persian Gulf has emerged as the most dynamic Arab country in the tumult realigning the region. Its intentions remain murky to its neighbors and even allies — some say Qatar has a Napoleon complex, others say it has an Islamist agenda. But its clout is a lesson in what can be gained with some of the world’s largest gas reserves, the region’s most influential news network in Al Jazeera, an array of contacts many with an Islamist bent, and policy-making in an absolute monarchy vested in the hands of one man, its emir, Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani.Qatar has become a vital counterpoint in an Arab world where traditional powers are roiled by revolution, ossified by aging leaderships, or still reeling from civil war, and where the United States is increasingly viewed as a power in decline.

via Qatar Presses Decisive Shift in Arab Politics – NYTimes.com.

I should note that this is a retread both in my posting and in the Times’ reporting.

Whither Syria?

Where is Syria heading? (Some answers include a civil war, economic meltdown, or stalemate, albeit with defections.)  A recent Frontline special offers chilling insights into what protesters face from the brutal and consistent government crackdown.

Now the Arab League weighs in:

Arab governments, seeking to reflect popular demand for democratic change, are trying to address the issue without prompting the violent downfall of the Syrian government or international military action, analysts said.

“They all want to appear democratic, proactive and standing up for people because they are so embattled at home,” said Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, Lebanon.

via Arab League Suspends Syria Over Its Crackdown – NYTimes.com.

The Long War Journal offers this helpful list of the key players.

Obama’s Influential Mideast Envoy to Resign – NYTimes.com

Obama loses a key diplomat:

A Middle East adviser to five presidents, Mr. Ross, 62, is known for his painstaking approach to diplomacy and longstanding ties to Israeli leaders, which made him a behind-the-scenes interlocutor with Israel but also stood in stark contrast to the bolder instincts and the more distant approach of his boss.

But Mr. Ross’s departure, effective in December, is not a result of disputes over policy, several officials said. He helped formulate Mr. Obama’s most recent proposal to revive peace talks, under which the Israelis and the Palestinians would negotiate the contours of a Palestinian state using the prevailing borders before the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, adjusted to account for Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

via Obama’s Influential Mideast Envoy to Resign – NYTimes.com.

Israel May Want to Attack, Palestinians May Lose UN Vote

The story that Israelis are serious about an Iranian attack seems to stay alive, even as the NYT reports that the Palestinians’ hopes at the UN may be falling.

Israeli officials would not confirm or deny multiple reports in the Israeli news media that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak were pressing for a decision on whether and when to strike a uranium enrichment facility at Natanz, the centerpiece of Iran’s known nuclear-fuel production, and related sites across the country.

via Israel Questioned on News Reports It Is Eyeing Iran Strike – NYTimes.com.

In Iraq, Diplomatic Perspectives on a Deal Not Made – NYTimes.com

Reporting on the planned U.S. pullout from Iraq, Michael Schmidt writes that international diplomacy doesnt have the same open admission of defeat that sports does.

In the meeting with reporters, the ambassador did not want to acknowledge that his arguments for a significant troop presence after 2011 had lost out.  In fact, he said he was encouraged by the decision.

via In Iraq, Diplomatic Perspectives on a Deal Not Made – NYTimes.com.

Rachid al-Ghannouchi Imagines Democratic Future for Tunisia – NYTimes.com

Consider the future of Tunisia–including todays’s headline on the Sunday vote–as a model of Middle East democracy according to Rachid al-Ghannouchi, a well-known Islamic thinker:

Tunisia “is going to be a democratic society, a model in the Arab world,” he said, after a recent conference in Istanbul, where some of Turkey’s conservative leaders look to him as an inspiration and an ally. “The direction of Tunisia’s future is that it will be open to the entire world.”

via Rachid al-Ghannouchi Imagines Democratic Future for Tunisia – NYTimes.com.