The Latin America Left | Newly Elected President in Uruguay

Following the path of Brazil, Chile, and Peru, Uruguay solidifies the socialist hold on government:

The victory by Mr. Mujica, a farmer and Socialist senator, completed an improbable journey. He helped found the Tupamaro movement, inspired by the Cuban Revolution, and waged an urban guerrilla war robbing banks and businesses and seeking to install a Marxist-style government here. He spent almost 15 years in prison.

His running mate, Danilo Astori, is the buttoned-down former finance minister under Mr. Vázquez who shares credit for the macroeconomic policies that improved Uruguay’s social conditions after a financial crisis at the beginning of the decade.

Mr. Mujica, who has piqued the Argentine political establishment by criticizing President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, said in an interview Sunday on Argentine television that he would “fight hard to have a good relationship with Argentina.”

via Leftist Wins Uruguay Presidential Vote – NYTimes.com.

Additional Reading on the Cuban Missile Crisis

Want to dig deeper into the causes, processses, and various possible outcomes from the crisis? (Remember that case studies, by their nature, have more than you can ever read or digest….that is part of the game.)  But assuming you want to learn more….First, its helpful to know that this is an oft-studied case in schools of public policy–so much so that Eliott Cohen wrote a much noted article in The National Interest in 1986 arguing “enough!” [Google book version here]

Further, take this worthy rebuttal to Cohen in this review of Michael Dobbs’ book and discussion of the demythologizing of the Cuban Missile Crisis, as well as a brief by Dobbs for the US Institute of Peace [PDF].  (The latter argues several reasons for the continued study of this case–including the fact that it demonstrates how personality in leadership matters.  With a different president we very well would have obtained a different result.)

Now, go back from the future and consider these sources, thanks to Future State:

Primary Sources

Kennedy, Robert F. Thirteen Days: A Memoir of the Cuban Missile Crisis. New York: W.W. Norton, 1969.

U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, History Staff. CIA Documents on the Cuban Missile Crisis, 1962. Washington, DC, Central Intelligence Agency, 1992. http://www.cia.gov/csi/books/cubamis/book1.pdf

U.S. Department of State, Office of the Historian. Foreign Relations of the United States, 1961-1963, vol. VI, Kennedy-Khrushchev Exchanges. Washington, DC: USGPO, 1996. http://www.state.gov/www/about_state/history/volume_vi/volumevi.html

U.S. Department of State, Office of the Historian. Foreign Relations of the United States, 1961-1963, vol. X, Cuba, 1961-1962. Washington, DC: USGPO, 1997. http://www.state.gov/www/about_state/history/frusX/index.html

U.S. Department of State. Office of the Historian. Foreign Relations of the United States, 1961-1963, vol. XI, Cuban Missile Crisis and Aftermath. Washington, DC: USGPO, 1996. http://www.state.gov/www/about_state/history/frusXI/index.html

Secondary Sources

Allison, Graham T. and Philip Zelikow. Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. New York: Addison Wesley Longman, 1999.

Fursenko, Aleksandr and Timothy Naftali. One Hell of a Gamble: Khrushchev, Castro, and Kennedy, 1958-1964. New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 1997.

May, Ernest R. and Philip Zelikow, eds. The Kennedy Tapes: Inside the White House During the Cuban Missile Crisis. Cambridge: Belknap Press, 1997.

Nash, Philip. The Other Missiles of October: Eisenhower, Kennedy, and the Jupiters, 1957-1963. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1997.

National Security Archive. “The Cuban Missile Crisis, 1962: The 40th Anniversary.” http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/nsa/cuba_mis_cri/

Paterson, Thomas G. Contesting Castro: The United States and the Triumph of the Cuban Revolution. New York: Oxford University Press, 1994.

Thirteen Days (movie). Dir. Roger Donaldson. New Line Cinema, 2000.

U.S. Embargo on Cuba Again Finds Scant Support at U.N. – NYTimes.com

Change may have come when Obama took office–but nothing changed at the UN with US policy toward Cuba:

The nonbinding resolution has been an annual ritual for 18 years. The vote this time of 187 in support, 3 opposed and 2 abstaining underlined the utter lack of support for the 50-year-old American attempt to isolate Cuba. (Israel and Palau joined the United States, while the Marshall Islands and Micronesia abstained.)

via U.S. Embargo on Cuba Again Finds Scant Support at U.N. – NYTimes.com.

Need to Know | Celso Amorim, Brasil’s FM Plays a Beautiful Game of FP

Ever since the Ambassador from Brazil visited BYU last May I have been wondering when the cheers would arrive in the US press for the rise of this new good-to-great power.  Hats off for David Rothkopf at FP.com who sums up the situation nicely, whilst heaping praise on a worthy Brazilian public servant, as well:

Nothing illustrates how far Brazil has come or how effective the Lula-Amorim team has been than the events of the past few weeks. First, the countries of the world cashier the G8 and embrace the G20, guaranteeing Brazil a permanent place at the most important table in the world. Next, Brazil becomes the first country in South America to be awarded the right to host the Olympics. Yesterday’s FT carried news that “Asia and Brazil lead rise in consumer confidence”, a reflection on the reputation that the government has effectively sold (with the bulk of the credit going to a resurgent Brazilian private sector.) And this week’s stories out of the IMF-World Bank meeting in Istanbul show a further institutionalization of Brazil’s new role with agreement to change the structure of the International Monetary Fund. According to today’s Washington Post: “The nations also preliminarily agreed to reshape the fund’s voting structure, promising a blueprint for giving more clout to emerging giants like Brazil and China by January 2011.”

Not a bad few days work. And while it’s Brazil’s Finance Ministry you’ll find at IMF-World Bank Meetings, the undisputed architect of this remarkable transformation of Brazil’s role in Amorim.

Much work remains to be done, of course. Part of it has to do with the new role that has been shaped. Brazil wants a permanent place on the U.N. Security Council and more of a leadership role in other international institutions. It may well earn these, but it will have to maintain its growth and stability to get there.

via Why Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is having a great term | David Rothkopf.

In Mexican Drug War, Fear Compounds Law Enforcers’ Troubles – Series – NYTimes.com

The hit men moved in on their target, shot him dead and then disappeared in a matter of seconds. It would have been a perfect case for José Ibarra Limón, one of this violent border city’s most dogged crime investigators — had he not been the victim.

via In Mexican Drug War, Fear Compounds Law Enforcers’ Troubles – Series – NYTimes.com.

Required reading in preparation for the visit of a BYU graduate-turned Consul General in Nogales, a bordertown near Tuscon–and in the middle of this war over drugs, power, and justice.

UPDATE:  If that wasn’t bad enough, the poor are getting kidnapped…just like in Kenya.

Rio Rising | Games and More?

I’m working on a guest blogger who actually knows something about Olympism, but I have to wonder how giving bid to Rio (my preference, too, but no offense Chicago dear) parallels the Rise of Brazil in world affairs. Surely its coincidental that the fracas in Honduras seems to be located on the Brazilian embassy.  Everywhere we look, its Portuguese!

A popular self-deprecating t-shirt slogan has been that the country is “o pais do futuro, e sempre sera” (the country of the future, and always will be).  It now seems the joke is the rest of the world, or is it?

In large part because of its vast supply of natural resources, the centerpiece of Brazilian foreign policy is trade. Brazilian leaders cite cooperation on energy and biofuels, development, science and technology, open markets, and other steps that will strengthen the Brazilian economy as the country’s primary foreign policy goals. In early 2008 Brazil replaced China at the top of a key financial index that measures emerging markets. The country plays an important role in international affairs, in part through its membership in various multilateral organizations.

via TSF Rising Powers. or check out this Stanley Foundation podcast series

Over at FP.com, the argument goes like this: “Don’t feel bad, USA.  You saved yourself a major headache.”  Yet one can’t help wonder if this is a wake up call that the U.S. is losing its place to a rising multi-polar world.

The Big Quesion in Central America

Important conversation starter when the topic turns to the area South of Mexico…and a story that was a big deal in August and now still seems to be a critical test of who made the right call–the military or politicians:

So as the political standoff in Honduras entered a surprising new chapter, the big question Tuesday was how in the world Manuel Zelaya, the deposed and exiled president, managed to sneak back into his country undetected.

via Mystery in Honduran Leader’s Return – NYTimes.com.

US/Cuba Bilateral Talks | It All Starts with Mail

Small step, small step…

Cuba and the United States sat down in Havana on Thursday for rare talks aimed at re-establishing direct mail service, which was suspended in 1963. The United States delegation was led by Bisa Williams, the deputy assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs. It was the first time that State Department officials had traveled to Cuba for talks since late 2002…”the talks would be limited to mail service.”

via World Briefing – The Americas – Cuba – U.S. Officials Visit to Discuss Mail Service – NYTimes.com.

Honduras and “The Fog of Diplomacy”?

The situation in Honduras warrants attention–even if its hard to know what the right call is for the U.S.  (Win kudos among traditionally hostile Latin American states or stick with the possibly illegally ousted president?) According to NYT:

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton announced Thursday that the United States would formally suspend nearly $30 million in aid to the coup-installed government in Honduras. She also suggested for the first time that the United States might not recognize the country’s elections this fall if the ousted president was not returned to power by then.Senior administration officials said she was sending a “powerful signal” of their commitment to the restoration of democracy in Honduras, which has been the object of international condemnation since June 28, when soldiers rousted President Manuel Zelaya from his bed and loaded him onto a plane leaving the country.

Regardless of where you line up, the situation does bring to light an interesting concept–highlighted in World Politics Review–confusion in the moment leading to a real lack of clarity regarding the right decision:

But setting aside interests, there are also pretty strong theoretical arguments for both sides of the Honduras debate. In other words, there’s not necessarily moral clarity one way or the other. That, in turn, got me thinking about how some of the highest-priority foreign policy dossiers these days involve a high degree uncertainty and inexact knowledge: the nature of the Iranian nuclear program, for instance, or the nature of China’s medium-term ambitions in Asia and elsewhere.

We hear often about the “fog of war.” The runup to the Iraq War, or the question over who started the Russia-Georgia War, offer obvious illutrations in that regard. But these days, it seems just as useful to talk about the “fog of diplomacy.”

via WPR Blog | The Fog of Diplomacy.

A Tale of Two Countries and both are Honduras

Interesting human side to the Honduran question in friendly diplos who chose different sides of the fence, with long-lasting implications.  Aside from the initial issue of “Is it a coup or not,” and not even delving into the question of whether they are a good thing or who it helps/hurts–this is a moving story of the complexities here:

Which of the two diplomats is the renegade remains in some dispute. According to Mr. Micheletti’s government, Mr. Reina is a rogue ambassador who is using the government’s offices in New York without authorization. Mr. Flores Bermúdez, by contrast, was stripped of his diplomatic credentials by the State Department on Tuesday afternoon, a move that seemed to be in keeping with the Obama administration’s condemnation of the Honduran president’s ouster.

“Since that moment,” Mr. Flores Bermúdez said, “I have been presenting myself as the former ambassador from Honduras.”

Both are major figures back home. Mr. Reina, 74, is the brother of Carlos Roberto Reina, who was president from 1994 to 1998. A former law professor, university dean and member of Congress, Mr. Reina has sought the presidency himself, representing a leftist faction of the Liberal Party.

Mr. Flores Bermúdez, 59, who remembers Mr. Reina’s teaching him law years ago, served as ambassador to the United Nations from 1990 to 1994 and foreign minister from 1999 to 2002.

via Diplomats and Friends, Two Hondurans Part Ways – NYTimes.com.